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I hate to say that I told you so....

#1 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 09:24 AM

If those 5 ministers or ex-Ministers in the present Cabinet had kept their mouth shut and not shown any allegiance to either of the two contenders, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, they would still be Ministers today. What a waste of talent. Furthermore the Coalition would not have those upcoming ads in it's possession to use as silly and negative electoral fodder.
Alright grant it, there are such things as factions and honesty, but there is also such a thing as overkill too.
Ministers are not similar to backbenchers. They are expected to have the vision and common sense to only comment on or about their respective portfolios.
But no...clearly they all had this mindset, like many of you on these forums, where they seemed to find it wholly impossible a return of Kevin Rudd as leader and where thus safe in commenting negatively on Rudd..
How can I forget when I posted months ago on these forums, the probable return of Rudd as leader and PM of the ALP/Australia respectively many of you dismissed it. Now we have another significant prediction from these so-called political analysts. Firstly they predicted that Rudd will never be re-elected leader of the ALP. They were wrong. Now they are predicting that Rudd has not a chance of winning the next Federal election. Are they to be wrong once again?
Well I hate to say that I told you so,
But...I told you so!
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#2 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 09:27 AM

Rudd will win the election.
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#3 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 10:59 AM

View PostRoderick, on 27 June 2013 - 09:27 AM, said:

Rudd will win the election.

Not sure that this will happen, but the Senate has been kept out of the hands of the Dark Forces. Even the Coalition acknowledge this. On ABC24, there was a piece about a Coalition member being encountered in the halls of Parliament House yesterday evening (before the result was announced but after it was clear that Rudd would win), who was quite agitated, mumbling something about losing the Senate.

On the Senate, 57% 2pp means four Senate quotas is likely. If four quotas are not obtained the most likely scenario is three quotas plus a high chance of electing a minor party Senator of the same persuasion (right-wing in this case).

The Senate is won. The battle is now on for control of the House.

If the Coalition win, but the control of the Senate is kept out of the hands of the Coalition, the ALP and Greens are likely to retain some control between them after July 1 2014. The ALP and Greens will block legislation they do not like, such as any "Commission of Audit" rubbish (reasonable because any measures cloaked in this way do not have a legitimate mandate). This risks an Abbott calling a DD election, but this is risky.

I don't know if a Rudd-led ALP will win, but it is a decent chance.
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#4 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 08:16 AM

If you look at my previous posts of months ago I predicted:
1) That Rudd will again be PM (which many of you dismissed)
2) That September 14 was an informal election date something which many of you and the Australian media failed to understand. I also mentioned that the Governor General has to involved in this selection
3) That if Rudd wins once again the leadership September 14 may not be the election date. (August 24 is being mooted or even October and November.
Now no one agreed with me so you must have thought that I either lost my marbles or that I am not only a "dumbcluck"..... but a foolish cluck as well
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#5 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:01 PM

View Postdumbcluck, on 28 June 2013 - 08:16 AM, said:

If you look at my previous posts of months ago I predicted:
1) That Rudd will again be PM (which many of you dismissed)

I considered the possibility, probably more than most. I did rebut LW58 when he said a Rudd return was "virtually impossible" by pointing out that there had been two leadership changes already in that month. In other words, I wasn't ruling it out of consideration.

You didn't consider the possibility of Gillard leaving politics, although to be fair I doubt anybody would have seen this coming three months ago as it played out this week.

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2) That September 14 was an informal election date something which many of you and the Australian media failed to understand. I also mentioned that the Governor General has to involved in this selection

There's really no such thing as an "informal" election date. It either is or isn't. Perhaps you meant to say something like "provisional" or "indicative"?

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3) That if Rudd wins once again the leadership September 14 may not be the election date. (August 24 is being mooted or even October and November.

This is a point that I did not consider either way. The Prime Minister sets the election date. Under Gillard the date was announced in advance as September 14th. I considered the possibility of Rudd returning, but IIRC I didn't actually consider that Rudd may choose to set a different date.

I'm pretty sure he will change the date due to the great inconvenience of a September 14th date to the Jewish community. I've already suggested a postponement to September 21st as a likely change.

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Now no one agreed with me so you must have thought that I either lost my marbles or that I am not only a "dumbcluck"..... but a foolish cluck as well

Not at all. You are not foolish for having a difference of opinion if it is defensible.
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#6 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 03:46 PM

Congrats Bam on your characteristically (fairly) objective response.
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#7 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 10:23 AM

So what are you saying that many of you had the vision of Rudd returning when everyone knows that in many of you your visions only extend to the point of your noses? I just want a plain response. Did many of of you predict, as I did, a Rudd return?...Yes or No ? Did many of you predict a different election date ...Yes or No?. And did you post as I did, these definite conclusions on these forums or any other forums? And if so where would they be (link please)?
Now no skirting around with semantics on what I wrote and then calling it objective
Now we come to the issues at hand. If I was Rudd I'll call a snap election as soon as possible in August whilst he is in his honeymoon period. There is only one point against this. In Australia traditionally, winter elections are extremely rare. They are believed not to be conducive to the incumbents winning. I think that the last winter election we had in Australia was back in July 1987 and numerous years before that.
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#8 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 10:29 AM

Howard's elections were all winter ones......the winters of our discontent :rolleyes:
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#9 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 11:21 AM

View Postdumbcluck, on 29 June 2013 - 10:23 AM, said:

So what are you saying that many of you had the vision of Rudd returning when everyone knows that in many of you your visions only extend to the point of your noses?

I considered the possibility objectively, but I did not make a definitive prediction. I am not speaking for others.
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#10 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 01:21 PM

View Postdumbcluck, on 29 June 2013 - 10:23 AM, said:

So what are you saying that many of you had the vision of Rudd returning when everyone knows that in many of you your visions only extend to the point of your noses? I just want a plain response. Did many of of you predict, as I did, a Rudd return?...Yes or No ? Did many of you predict a different election date ...Yes or No?. And did you post as I did, these definite conclusions on these forums or any other forums? And if so where would they be (link please)?


I found it to be a conundrum. Gillard had to go, and yet how could anyone entertain the idea of putting back the ex-PM who'd lost his way and been most thoroughly and repeatedly dispatched by his close colleagues? I was hoping Rudd would keep a promise (just this once) and leave the loser to get their just reward.

Most of the talk about a come back included the notion that Rudd would then go to an election early to benefit from the sugar hit of a change. It's made a little more complicated now that we are so far down the pathway to an election.

Whatever happens, the circus will remain excruciating to watch.
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#11 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 05:08 PM

View Posticey, on 29 June 2013 - 01:21 PM, said:

Whatever happens, the circus will remain excruciating to watch.

It's a shame that the Coalition have degenerated so much that they are now causing you this pain. Never mind, soon they will take a lead from the ALP and switch back to Turnbull.
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#12 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 05:47 PM

View PostBam, on 29 June 2013 - 05:08 PM, said:

It's a shame that the Coalition have degenerated so much that they are now causing you this pain. Never mind, soon they will take a lead from the ALP and switch back to Turnbull.


Now you're talking my kinda humour Bam! Keep it up, as a sideshow contributes to the general carnival atmosphere. :D
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#13 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 30 June 2013 - 08:24 AM

View Posticey, on 29 June 2013 - 01:21 PM, said:

I found it to be a conundrum. Gillard had to go, and yet how could anyone entertain the idea of putting back the ex-PM who'd lost his way and been most thoroughly and repeatedly dispatched by his close colleagues? I was hoping Rudd would keep a promise (just this once) and leave the loser to get their just reward.

Most of the talk about a come back included the notion that Rudd would then go to an election early to benefit from the sugar hit of a change. It's made a little more complicated now that we are so far down the pathway to an election.

Whatever happens, the circus will remain excruciating to watch.


This is why Icey and many of you on these forums are members of the electorate and shall remain so in limbo and permanently conned. You do not think in terms of and neither do you understand 'human nature'. That always comes through you see. 'Human nature is common and cannot be covered or altered by politics or "social masks". It applies to Barack Obama as well as Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard and to you Icey and many of you on these forums
There is your problem
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#14 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 30 June 2013 - 06:51 PM

To be clear DC, is my problem in your opinion that I .....

View Postdumbcluck, on 30 June 2013 - 08:24 AM, said:

do not think in terms of and neither do ..understand 'human nature'
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#15 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 01:31 PM

View Postdumbcluck, on 28 June 2013 - 08:16 AM, said:

2) That September 14 was an informal election date something which many of you and the Australian media failed to understand. I also mentioned that the Governor General has to involved in this selection

Antony Green speculated on Rudd changing the election date two weeks before Rudd regained the leadership.

Green supports your view above on the September 14th date being provisional:

Quote

The first thing to say about the current election date for September 14 is that it is only an intention by the current Prime Minister to hold an election on that date. The actual date is not set until the issue of the writ by the Governor-General on the advice of the Prime Minister.
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#16 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 08:45 AM

I speculated on :
1) A Rudd resurrection
2) That 14 September date being an informal date and if Rudd becomes PM that may not be the date
3) That Abbott will be in trouble should Rudd become leader

weeks and months ago (read my posts).......when the media and political analysts were saying (including many of you) that there is no chance that Rudd will again become leader.

Can you please be precise in your critique
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#17 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 04:22 PM

Methinks you're lookin' for a medal.

Posted Image


Here's one for especially for you.

Sorry, could not help myself. No offence intended!
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