The Daily Wire: Newspoll 30 June 2013 2PP 51/49 Coalition/ALP (ALP up 6) - The Daily Wire

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Newspoll 30 June 2013 2PP 51/49 Coalition/ALP (ALP up 6)

#1 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 30 June 2013 - 11:34 PM

Primary:
Coalition 43 (down 5)
ALP 35 (up 6)
Greens 11 (up 2)
Others 11 (down 3)

Rudd: Satisfied: 36 Dissatisfied 36
Abbott: Satisfied: 33 (down 1) Dissatisfied 56 (up 3)

PPM Rudd 49 Abbott 35 (down 10)


The Australian: “In Mr Rudd's last poll before being dumped, Labor held a 52 to 48 two-party preferred lead and Mr Rudd led Mr Abbott 46 per cent to 37 per cent as better PM”.

http://www.theaustra...x-1226672261175

With the ALP still on 35% primary and Rudd satisfaction on 36%, if this is the best the ALP can do, as I believe it is, then the Coalition should not be too concerned.
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#2 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 09:23 AM

And for once Newspoll is not the lead story on every front page and website the MSM runs.

Wonder why?
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#3 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 09:44 AM

Abbott would need to improve on the Preferred PM ratings. His stubbornly low figures would be of some concern to the Coalition, especially if the ALP manage to pull ahead of the 2PP ratings. While there is no firm indication that the ALP will gain this ascendancy, if it does happen Abbott's will likely not last long as leader if he loses the election. History would be against Abbott here; leaders that lose elections tend to get replaced.

His figures will not improve much if he does win the election, especially given his known weaknesses as a leader. Abbott knows his own weaknesses, which is one reason why he consistently refuses to engage in debate on policy; he is not very good at this kind of unscripted speaking and his party needs to release more policies.

Rudd's been in the job only a few days, and it is likely that his best days on the satisfaction ratings lie ahead of him. Good performances and a positive approach will help. Things can go wrong too. Rudd needs to be careful if he is to build the support that he needs to win the election.

While the Coalition may believe that 51-49 is satisfactory, elections have been lost with such 2PP figures, the most recent being in 1998. That is unlikely on the current layout of marginal seats in Parliament. However, those figures represent less than a 2% swing and would not provide a convincing mandate if replicated at an election.

The election is not yet won by either side. It can still go either way. The party with a commanding poll lead three months out from the election does not always win it: 1993, 1998 and 2001 are three elections that went the other way from the opinion polls. All were won by the incumbent party.
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#4 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 12:26 PM

The canny bookmakers are still offering around $4 for a ALP win. Admittedly in from about $8 but still good odds if it is really that close.
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#5 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:31 AM

View Postlenxyz, on 01 July 2013 - 12:26 PM, said:

The canny bookmakers are still offering around $4 for a ALP win. Admittedly in from about $8 but still good odds if it is really that close.

I no longer discuss specific gambling odds as a matter of personal policy.

Reasons: (1) The recent furore about gambling in sport; (2) There's too much discussion of gambling odds in the community; (3) I do not want to support the gambling industry by discussing odds; (4) Gambling odds are not an accurate proxy for the probability of event outcomes.
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#6 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 04:37 PM

View PostBam, on 03 July 2013 - 09:31 AM, said:

I no longer discuss specific gambling odds as a matter of personal policy.

Reasons: (1) The recent furore about gambling in sport; (2) There's too much discussion of gambling odds in the community; (3) I do not want to support the gambling industry by discussing odds; (4) Gambling odds are not an accurate proxy for the probability of event outcomes.


Well don't discuss it then. In the context of this forum, I do not perceive such discussion to be a serious call to put money on the table.

The saying regarding readiness to "put your money where your mouth is" does have some relevance. It costs "zip" for a Lib voter to say he'd prefer Gillard as PM (before the second coming), but cashed up punters will be a little less flippant.
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#7 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 08:25 AM

View Posticey, on 03 July 2013 - 04:37 PM, said:

Well don't discuss it then. In the context of this forum, I do not perceive such discussion to be a serious call to put money on the table.

One should be able to discuss the chances of one's preferred political party, favourite football team or whatever without ever referring to the gambling odds.

Quote

The saying regarding readiness to "put your money where your mouth is" does have some relevance. It costs "zip" for a Lib voter to say he'd prefer Gillard as PM (before the second coming), but cashed up punters will be a little less flippant.

I would rather not provide a steady flow of punters so that the gambling corporations can take out their 10% on every bet.
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