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Five polls with Coalition still in front

#1 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 01:16 PM

Interestingly, all 5 pollsters that have surveyed so far, each with a MOE of about 3%, have the Coalition in front.

Wednesday night: Morgan 50.5/49.5 to Coalition
Friday: ReachTEL 52/48 to Coalition
Saturday: Galaxy 51/49 to Coalition
Sunday: Newspoll 51/49 to Coalition
Monday: ER 52/48 to Coalition
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#2 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 02:09 PM

On a 52% 2PP, the Coalition would have a net gain of about eight seats, enough to form government but not near enough to gain control of the Senate.

It's an interesting quirk, but it is not a meaningful indicator of the likely election outcome this far out from polling day. All it means is that the Coalition are more likely to win, but it is far from a sure thing.

Opinion polls in the months before an election have been remarkably poor at predicting election outcomes.

Four Federal elections out of the last seven were won by the party that was behind in the opinion polls in the months leading to the election (1993, 1998, 2001, 2004). All four were incumbent governments. Only two out of seven (1996, 2007) saw the party that was ahead in the opinion polls win a majority (2010 produced a minority government). Not one election out of the last seven saw an incumbent ahead in the months leading to the election and go on to win a majority. The only election where the incumbent was ahead in the opinion polls was in 2010 - and that election produced a hung Parliament.

So it is clear that an early lead in the opinion polls does not always bring an election victory. The only thing that can be predicted from opinion polls is that Australians are almost always dissatisfied with the Federal Government.

Bold - Opinion polls correctly predict election outcome before election is called.

1993 - Coalition Opposition ahead in polls - ALP win election
1996 - Coalition Opposition ahead in polls - Coalition win election
1998 - ALP Opposition ahead in polls - Coalition win election (ALP win 2PP vote)
2001 - ALP Opposition ahead in polls - Coalition win election
2004 - ALP Opposition ahead in polls - Coalition win election
2007 - ALP Opposition ahead in polls - ALP win election
2010 - ALP Government ahead in polls - hung parliament (ALP win minority government)
2013 - Coalition Opposition ahead in polls - ???
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This post has been edited by Bam: 01 July 2013 - 02:10 PM

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#3 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 02:42 PM

Never believe opinion polls and you'll be in front.
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Self-defence is not only a Right, it is an Obligation.
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#4 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 06:32 PM

Morgan has now released a poll that has the ALP in front.

ALP 51.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%).
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#5 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 07:55 PM

View PostBam, on 01 July 2013 - 06:32 PM, said:

Morgan has now released a poll that has the ALP in front.

ALP 51.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%).


Interesting, but if I had to choose between Morgan and ER who both announced poll results today, I would pick ER, today and anyday. Morgan has yet to prove its methodology.
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#6 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 09:41 PM

View Postlenxyz, on 01 July 2013 - 07:55 PM, said:

Interesting, but if I had to choose between Morgan and ER who both announced poll results today, I would pick ER, today and anyday. Morgan has yet to prove its methodology.

A poll is a poll. I prefer to take the aggregate of all poll findings as some pseph sites choose to do.

I also note that you've chosen to highlight Morgan's snap SMS poll as one of your "Five polls with Coalition still in front", yet when Morgan publish a poll as part of their regular polling cycle that shows the ALP has edged in front, only then do you question Morgan's methodology. To me, it looks like you're accepting a poll because it supports your point, then rejecting a poll from the same polling company because it doesn't.
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#7 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:18 AM

View PostBam, on 01 July 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

A poll is a poll. I prefer to take the aggregate of all poll findings as some pseph sites choose to do.

I also note that you've chosen to highlight Morgan's snap SMS poll as one of your "Five polls with Coalition still in front", yet when Morgan publish a poll as part of their regular polling cycle that shows the ALP has edged in front, only then do you question Morgan's methodology. To me, it looks like you're accepting a poll because it supports your point, then rejecting a poll from the same polling company because it doesn't.


Acknowledged.

I never post Morgan polls. They have been too erratic to be useful and although the recent multi-mode polls seem better, they have yet to be proven. The media seems to ignore them.

I included the SMS Morgan poll in the 5 polls, since you had put them up on Daily Wire, otherwise I would have ignored it.
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#8 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:52 PM

View Postlenxyz, on 01 July 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:

Interestingly, all 5 pollsters that have surveyed so far, each with a MOE of about 3%, have the Coalition in front.


And this is the sugar hit?

I gather that Rudd's flailing team is about back to where it was when Julia sunk the boot (sorry, to use the parlance, when she "assassinated a PM"). Great result - rather like a battery with a memory effect.

The public (battery) appears to "remember" the smaller capacity (their level of support based on how abysmal Rudd was). A Lib advertising campaign might aid the battery to realise that it was in fact, fully discharged, :D


View PostBam, on 01 July 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

To me, it looks like you're accepting a poll because it supports your point, then rejecting a poll from the same polling company because it doesn't.


I'd never countenance such a practice! :)
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#9 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 09:51 AM

View Postlenxyz, on 02 July 2013 - 12:18 AM, said:

Acknowledged.

I never post Morgan polls. They have been too erratic to be useful and although the recent multi-mode polls seem better, they have yet to be proven. The media seems to ignore them.

First, a disclosure - I was polled by Morgan in a face-to-face opinion poll a few years ago (I still have the pen they gave me) so I have some personal experience with the methodology.

The methodology has two flaws that I can see.
(1) the face-to-face polling requires the pollster to start at an address and keep polling consecutive addresses until they receive five responses. Because people with similar views may be more likely to live near each other in homes of similar value, this is not entirely a random sample. This is likely to cause more fluctuation from poll to poll than would be the case for a purely random sample. (This is supported to some extent by individual booth results for most electorates which can fluctuate quite noticeably from the total 2PP value.)
(2) Morgan uses different polling methods which may each have their own biases. For example, phone-based polls will tend to exclude the poorest 10% of the population that have a lower rate of ownership of telephones than the average. A comparison between polls with different methods will show artificial variance that does not actually exist in practice.

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I included the SMS Morgan poll in the 5 polls, since you had put them up on Daily Wire, otherwise I would have ignored it.

I think it is best that we do not ignore any poll from good companies, even if we may have personal doubts about the methodology of individual polls. Otherwise we risk introducing personal bias into the comparison and that is not desirable.
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#10 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 10:09 AM

View Posticey, on 02 July 2013 - 02:52 PM, said:

And this is the sugar hit?

I gather that Rudd's flailing team is about back to where it was when Julia sunk the boot (sorry, to use the parlance, when she "assassinated a PM").

Early days yet.

In the past seven elections, not one of them has been won by an Opposition with a narrow lead in the 2PP figures in the last few months before the election while the Opposition leader trails in the preferred PM ratings.

There have been three changes of government at Federal level in the past 30 years. At every one of them, two things happened: (1) the Opposition led the Government in the pre-election opinion polls, and (2) the leader of the Opposition has led the preferred PM ratings. This is not a sufficient condition, but is indicative.

If the Coalition were to win the forthcoming election, it would be the first time for decades that the party with the less popular leader were to win a Federal election.
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#11 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 04:47 PM

View PostBam, on 03 July 2013 - 10:09 AM, said:

If the Coalition were to win the forthcoming election, it would be the first time for decades that the party with the less popular leader were to win a Federal election.


Really? Surprises me as I thought Howard had won from a position of unpopularity at times.

Last example?
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#12 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 08:14 AM

View Posticey, on 03 July 2013 - 04:47 PM, said:

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If the Coalition were to win the forthcoming election, it would be the first time for decades that the party with the less popular leader were to win a Federal election.

Really? Surprises me as I thought Howard had won from a position of unpopularity at times.

Last example?

I omitted an important detail in that sentence. I should have added the words "from Opposition" at the end. From the context of the rest of the paragraph, it should be clear that was my intention. I believe that you are right regarding a government retaining power.

Winning power from Opposition - and hence a change of government - seems to require a leader who is the preferred PM as well as an Opposition leading the 2PP vote. Even if both conditions are met, election victory for an Opposition is not guaranteed - hence your remarks. What seems to be the kiss of death for an Opposition election victory is when one or both conditions are not met.
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#13 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 08:38 AM

Barrie Cassidy of the ABC has posted an article that supports some of my points above.

A Labor election win is no longer preposterous

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Kevin Rudd has brought Labor back from the brink of electoral defeat into a competitive position, and Tony Abbott will need to respond with more than just a demand that an election be held immediately, writes Barrie Cassidy.
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