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Newspoll 8/7/13 50-50

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 11:00 AM

Primary:
ALP: 38
Coalition: 42
Greens: 9
Others: 11

2PP:
ALP: 50
Coalition: 50

Preferred Prime Minister:
Abbott: 31
Rudd: 53
Uncommitted: 16 (inferred)

Leaders' Net Satisfaction
Abbott: −21 (35 satisfied, 56 dissatisfied)
Rudd: +7 (43 satisfied, 36 dissatisfied)

Sources:
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#2 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 11:22 AM

The link to The Australian shows some clear trends that I will summarise below.
  • The ALP have substantially improved their polling with the change in leader, with primary and 2PP both recording strong improvement.
  • Rudd's polling as preferred PM and net satisfaction are markedly better than Gillard's were.
  • Abbott's net satisfaction polling is continuing its trend of polling in the negative mid-teens. Despite these low figures, they are significantly better than the figures that Abbott had in 2012, before Abbott had a makeover of his image. The current trend figures are roughly the best that Abbott has polled in the past two years and are not likely to improve much before the election.
  • The leaders of the major parties are very important to the party's electoral outcomes.
    • Abbott's worst net satisfaction ratings occurred around the same time as the 50-50 Newspolls in September and October last year.
    • The ALP had a dramatic improvement in their polling after Rudd regained the leadership of the ALP. The change in leadership occurred in the first place because Rudd was perceived as better liked by the electorate than Gillard.
    • In general the trend of the Coalition primary and 2PP votes have roughly tracked Abbott's net satisfaction rating. This particular trend has been broken by the change in the ALP leadership. With Abbott's net satisfaction roughly as good as it has been in the past two years and the 2PP polling close, any decline in Abbott's support will cost the Coalition the election.
  • The Greens have had a slow ebbing in support since the 2010 election. In 2011 figures of around 12% were typical, whereas now the Greens typically poll in the 9% range. For the Greens to win Senate seats, they will need to do preference deals with the ALP and other progressive parties.
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