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Nielsen 14 July 2013 50/50 Coalition/ALP

#1 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 11:48 PM

Primary:
Coalition 44
ALP 39
Greens 9
Others 8

Rudd Approval 51 Disapproval 43

Abbott Approval 41 Disapproval 56

PPM Rudd 55 Abbott 41

http://www.canberrat...0714-2pyea.html
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#2 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 06:32 AM

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http://ghostwhovotes...715-leaders.png



Anyone for Turnbull?


Not according to Andrew Elder

Quote

For the popular Turnbull to replace the unpopular Abbott would require smarter Liberal strategy than they have available. It is important to keep in mind that Liberal strategists are morons:
  • After the 2010 election the Coalition left negotiations with independents to the last minute, and failed to win government. Labor's tortoise beat the Coalition hare and they still haven't worked out why, or how. Now apparently Liberal policies are being left to the last minute, and this is supposed to be politically deft and reassuring for Coalition supporters?
  • The Coalition went to the 2010 election, and negotiations with independents, promising big-ticket items (e.g. paid-parental leave and a $1b hospital for Hobart) that nobody believed. Now they're promising big-ticket items that nobody believes (e.g. paid-parental leave again, carbon abatement by burying it in soil), and this is going to put them on track for victory?
  • The Coalition crashed and burned in 2007 with flawed policies on workplace relations and telecommunications. They fell short of victory in 2010 with weak policies in those areas. Now they are offering weak policies again in those key areas, while hoping for a different result.
  • Look how long it took them to adjust to the eminently foreseeable ascent of Peter Slipper to the Speakership. Their tactics in smearing Slipper were not well thought out and may yet come back to bite them. They still haven't adjusted to the departure of Julia Gillard, and the fact that Rudd's strengths and weaknesses aren't hers. Effective strategists can and do turn on a dime and create the impression of control in the midst of chaos.
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#3 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 02:04 PM

View PostHDMC, on 15 July 2013 - 06:32 AM, said:

Anyone for Turnbull?

Not according to Andrew Elder

[/list]


The Coalition were trailing 42/58 in the three ER polls before Turnbull was replaced by Abbott.
Turnbull had a approval rating of 25% and disapproval 55%.
The Liberal primary was averaging 31% for a Coalition primary of 34/35

Now with Abbott the Coalition is leading 52/48 according to ER, which has shown a good track record in avoiding the swings expected when you have a polls with a MOE of around 3%.

The Liberal primary is up by more than a third from the Turnbull era.

So much for Andrew Elder’s comments:

Quote

For the popular Turnbull to replace the unpopular Abbott would require smarter Liberal strategy than they have available. It is important to keep in mind that Liberal strategists are morons:


Presumably according to Elder, the Liberal Party has to take their cue from the ALP strategists who destroyed a first term PM, leading to the most unpopular PM and government in recent history. When that wasn’t going well, the ALP strategists grimly hung on despite a historic loss just around the corner and the ALP brand toxic around the country leading to several notable state election losses. The viable alternative to the unpopular Gillard was trashed publicly.

But then, the man they hated so much was re-instated. This is how one columnist described him:

Quote

Ministers have resigned rather than work with him. A former Labor leader has called for him to be expelled from the party. He is described on his own side as a “psychopath” – and yet his party decided he is the people’s psychopath.

...
...

Quote

He has been elected to run an election campaign: that being his great talent.
And so you have Rudd: the party’s answer to hatred of the party. The phrase “old politics” has become his slogan – a commitment to run for the public against a parliament it loathes. By 30 June, polls had Labor in contention to win an election it has looked like losing for three years.

http://www.newstates...ples-psychopath
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#4 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 05:35 AM

View Postlenxyz, on 15 July 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

Presumably according to Elder, the Liberal Party has to take their cue from the ALP strategists who destroyed a first term PM, leading to the most unpopular PM and government in recent history.




I didn't think he was advocating any such thing.

Quote

Turnbull can't be certain that he would beat Rudd, even if he had his ideal party structure and personnel in place. It is highly unlikely that Abbott people would vacate the field so comprehensively and with the party's interests uppermost as happened within Labor, as Gillard and her supporters did once Rudd had been re-elected. Abbott's people, the Liberal Right, are insurgents by nature; they used to sniping at moderates and calling for action, but when they have full scope to act as they wish they can't handle actual policy development.

All that changes after an election loss. Turnbull can remake the party in his own image, in terms of personnel and structure. Brian Loughnane and Peta Credlin would be the first out the door, and if they aren't safe who would be? Turnbull can learn how intransigence can work both for an against you as an opposition, something Abbott has not yet learned (and if he has, it's too late; there is no policy to fill the vacuum left by no, no, no). He can let Rudd burn himself out. He can build the policies that differentiate the Coalition from Labor in appealing ways. None of that is possible if he jumps too soon.



On a personal note, I'm more than happy for Abbott to retain the leadership.
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#5 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:12 PM

View Postlenxyz, on 15 July 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

The Coalition were trailing 42/58 in the three ER polls before Turnbull was replaced by Abbott.
Turnbull had a approval rating of 25% and disapproval 55%.
The Liberal primary was averaging 31% for a Coalition primary of 34/35

This doesn't matter. Gillard was also polling better than Rudd when she replaced him. Three years later and the polls shifted a lot for the ALP leaders. It's unbelievable to suggest that the Liberal leaders would not undergo a similar shift in sentiment over three years.

I have also seen one or two recent opinion polls that suggest that the Liberals would win comfortably with Turnbull leading the party. He is well respected in the community and is widely perceived as a better all-round leader of the Liberal party than Abbott.
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