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Galaxy 23-25 July 2013 50/50

#1 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 12:03 PM

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#2 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 03:08 PM

Galaxy poll puts Labor and Coalition at 50-50

Quote

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says he is not feeling nervous despite another opinion poll showing Labor and the Coalition neck and neck as the election looms.

A Galaxy poll published on Sunday put Labor's primary vote at 40 per cent - higher than at the 2010 election - while the Coalition was on 44 per cent.
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#3 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 05:37 PM

Q4 is amusingly loaded.

Q3 and Q5 are strikingly divided down party lines. Seems to be a lot of people that have forgotten that Rudd has a track record.
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#4 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 05:42 PM

View Posticey, on 28 July 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

Q4 is amusingly loaded.

Q3 and Q5 are strikingly divided down party lines. Seems to be a lot of people that have forgotten that Rudd has a track record.


Q2 is my fave. That pic of a horse with an ugly growth on it's back does it.
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#5 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 06:09 PM

View PostHDMC, on 28 July 2013 - 05:42 PM, said:

Q2 is my fave. That pic of a horse with an ugly growth on it's back does it.


The man on the horse leads one of two parties apparently polling 50:50 2PP.

And at the time of writing, the money says ......


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Sworn In Government

Pay on party which supplies the Prime Minister following the next Federal election.Bets settled at time of swearing in. All bets carry over if the Gov General does not swear in a PM because supply cannot be guaranteed.Coalition refers to the Liberal Party

Coalition 1.29
Australian Labor Party 3.40
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#6 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:04 PM

View Posticey, on 28 July 2013 - 06:09 PM, said:

The man on the horse leads one of two parties apparently polling 50:50 2PP.

And at the time of writing, the money says ......

Doesn't mean anything, icey. Do you really think that these odds are not tilted by the money that they are already holding on the election outcome?

Most likely, they're holding a lot of money on the Coalition from the time when the Coalition was looking likely to win. If the betting market was to open now with no money for either side, the odds would be closer.

Do try to understand how the betting markets work.
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#7 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:56 AM

View PostBam, on 28 July 2013 - 09:04 PM, said:

Doesn't mean anything, icey. Do you really think that these odds are not tilted by the money that they are already holding on the election outcome?

Most likely, they're holding a lot of money on the Coalition from the time when the Coalition was looking likely to win. If the betting market was to open now with no money for either side, the odds would be closer.

Do try to understand how the betting markets work.


I am as opposed to betting as you are Bam and as you don’t like it, I have since refrained from mentioning election betting odds.
But your recent comments indicate you, rather than Icey, is the one who doesn’t know how betting markets work. I do not for one moment believe they are a charity.

When live sporting bets were still allowed, a team favoured to win might have odds $1.29 to $3.40 at the start of the game. When things don’t quite go their way and the favourite team is getting thrashed with 2 minutes to go, the amusing odds of $10.00 to $1.01 shows up. Under your model Bam that isn’t possible as the weight of money on the favourite team would have kept the odds closer.

Election betting is live betting. The current odds are how the bookmakers see it right now. Whether their information is better than ours is another point.
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