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Let the games begin! It's Election Time

#21 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 07:16 AM

Dare we dream?

This leaked email indicates that the nauseating Sophie Mirrabella is in a bit of strife.



:) :) :) :) :) :) :)






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SOPHIE SHOWS HER CARING SIDE
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#22 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 01:52 PM

View PostHDMC, on 09 August 2013 - 07:16 AM, said:

Dare we dream?

This leaked email indicates that the nauseating Sophie Mirrabella is in a bit of strife.


That she is campaigning at all is indicative of strife? Apply the same rule to Rudd and you'd call emergency services for assistance!

As for the photo, the apparent sudden loss of consciousness was awkward for everyone in the studio.
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#23 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 04:25 PM

View Posticey, on 09 August 2013 - 01:52 PM, said:

As for the photo, the apparent sudden loss of consciousness was awkward for everyone in the studio.

Pretend something different as much as you want, but the truth will out.

After Sheikh fainted, others on the panel rendered assistance. Mirabella did nothing.
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#24 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 05:52 PM

And another comedy turn,

Quote

THE 'AUSTRALIAN SARAH PALIN'

August 9, 2013, 1:18 pm

When One Nation hopeful Stephanie Banister gave an exclusive interview to 7News on Wednesday, she did not expect it to make headlines around the world....

Ms Banister – the mother accused of an anti-Muslim contamination scare at a Queensland shopping centre – will stand as a One Nation candidate at next month’s federal election.

In an exclusive interview with 7News earlier this week, Ms Banister said Islam ‘was a country’ ....

At 27, she is described as One Nation’s ‘poster girl’ for Rankin....

Religion is at the centre of her political beliefs. She wants halal food banned, mistakes the haram for the Koran and believes the NDIS is ‘working at the moment’ – it is not due to start until 2016.

Ms Banister, who is facing criminal charges for allegedly placing anti-Muslim stickers on products in a supermarket, claims she was misrepresented in the interview....

However, the international media have been quick to ridicule Ms Banister, with The Huffington Post comparing her to Sarah Palin, the one-time Republican candidate for the vice presidency of the United States, ....

“Could this be Australia’s Sarah Palin,” wrote The Huffington Post.

“Stephanie Banister, a 27-year-old politician running for a seat in the Parliament of Australia, got a number of crucial facts about religion horribly wrong during a video interview with Australia's Channel 7 News.”

The Daily Mail called it “an embarrassing interview in which she displayed ignorance of basic facts about Islam.”

UK broadsheet The Telegraph was equally scathing while The Independent called it a ‘car-crash immigration television interview…surely among the worst’.
.....

My link
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#25 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 09:03 AM

and as the Games go on the Greens are polling badly.

Hallelujah
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#26 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 10:48 AM

Quote

Party 'can't be trusted'

BY:JOHN FERGUSON, VICTORIAN POLITICAL EDITOR From: The Australian August 10, 2013 12:00AM

ONE of Labor's most senior office bearers has warned the party about the dangers of alliances with the Greens due to the "devastating" consequences of propping up an organisation that was seeking to destroy the ALP.


Limited text

Fuller text
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#27 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 02:23 PM

View PostRoderick, on 09 August 2013 - 05:52 PM, said:

And another comedy turn,

My link

And she's out of the race for Rankin.
One Nation candidate Stephanie Banister quits election race after Islam gaffe
Though the One Nation Party attempt to downplay the hilarity at the last:

Quote

Stephanie Banister has withdrawn her nomination to stand following the disgraceful way she has been portrayed by recent media [and] ridicule over a minor gaffe in a statement she made to Channel Seven.

This "minor" [evidently a strange new meaning of the word "minor" - Bam] gaffe included describing Islam as a country, asserting that the holy book of Islam is the "haram" and claiming that Jews are followers of Jesus Christ.
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#28 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 04:06 PM

Quote

Adam Bandt targeted as union ally Dean Mighell calls in big guns
BY:JOHN FERGUSON, VICTORIAN POLITICAL EDITOR From: The Australian August 08, 2013 12:00AM

ADAM Bandt's most potent and controversial supporter, Dean Mighell, has abandoned the Greens MP after the gun lobby he runs savaged the minor party's political agenda and the tactics used by its parliamentarians.

In his maiden speech to parliament, Mr Bandt heaped praise on Mr Mighell for his "inspirational" support in 2010, which included a donation by his then union, reportedly worth $325,000, to enable the Greens to win Melbourne, their first seat in the House of Representatives.


Short

Long
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#29 User is offline   icey 

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 05:11 PM

View PostBam, on 09 August 2013 - 04:25 PM, said:

Pretend something different as much as you want, but the truth will out.

After Sheikh fainted, others on the panel rendered assistance. Mirabella did nothing.


Shocking! Absolutely shocking.
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#30 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 10:27 AM

Yes, Bam, I am one of "those conservative folk" who reckon the Bookies think that Abbott is a certainty.
Since your chin leading argument above - today's odds on Sporstsbet - Coalition $1.14; ALP $5.50 - "But of course the TRUE odds are closer" - Dream on, Bam.

The weeks leading up to the election will be fascinating as the ALP bandaid solutions start to unravel, Rudd revealed as the fake he is, and the odds get worse for the ALP.
Rudd will have another melt down(s) like the ones when he didn't have the meal he wanted on an air flight, or some one forgot to pack his hair dryer on a trip to the Middle East. I predict that the polls will start to resemble the last Gillard polls and Shorten and the other "faceless" men will have the horrible realisation that not only will Rudd not win, but he won't save any of the furniture as well... and why did we get rid of Julia in favour of Rudd who is universally disliked within the party.
As Mark Latham said the only people who like Rudd are those who haven't met him yet.
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#31 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 11:09 AM

View Postsouthern man, on 14 August 2013 - 10:27 AM, said:

I predict that the polls will start to resemble the last Gillard polls and Shorten and the other "faceless" men will have the horrible realisation that not only will Rudd not win, but he won't save any of the furniture as well... and why did we get rid of Julia in favour of Rudd who is universally disliked within the party.



I hate to admit it, but I think you're right.

Quote


As Mark Latham said the only people who like Rudd are those who haven't met him yet.


The flip side to that is a lot of people don't like Gillard until they meet her.
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#32 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 11:37 AM

View Postsouthern man, on 14 August 2013 - 10:27 AM, said:

Yes, Bam, I am one of "those conservative folk" who reckon the Bookies think that Abbott is a certainty.
Since your chin leading argument above - today's odds on Sporstsbet - Coalition $1.14; ALP $5.50 - "But of course the TRUE odds are closer" - Dream on, Bam.

I hope you're not constructing an argument on the premise that I'm asserting even-money odds or something else close to it. That's a straw man argument. I have said that the true odds would be closer, but I did not actually specify a figure.

It's not my problem if there's a few cashed-up rich folk looking to piss away the proceeds of regressive taxation by splurging on large bets with bookies. Nor is it my problem if you wilfully ignore my argument on how the betting markets work. Ever seen the odds shift immediately when a large bet is placed?
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#33 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 02:35 PM

I know how Bookies frame a market, Bam, and I think the odds they currently have represent a true reflection on the likelihood of each party to form Government.
I don't think the "True Odds" (whatever they are) are any different.
As soon as the election was announced there was a lot of money to the Coalition; after Gillard's demise the odds were still strong for a coalition victory and in the past week the ALP has blown out from about $3.85 to $5.50 - reflecting a flood of money for the Coalition.

The other thing I am looking forward to is the disarray and back stabbing which will go on with Labour in opposition.
It will make the so called disunity under Brendan Nelson's Opposition Leadership look like child's play.
I wonder what the odds are of Rudd being Opposition Leader in 1 month? 3 months? 6 months? 12 months? following the election? The latter would be 1000 to 1 IMO.
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#34 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 05:15 PM

I'm not a betting man but I think that Rudd will win.
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#35 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 10:09 PM

Assuming you are a Scot, judging by your moniker, Roderick, I would have expected you to have had better judgment, than to back Rudd, who is a loser in every sense of the word, unless you and Doug Cameron are of the same ilk?
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#36 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 06:28 AM

View Postsouthern man, on 14 August 2013 - 10:09 PM, said:

Assuming you are a Scot, judging by your moniker, Roderick, I would have expected you to have had better judgment, than to back Rudd, who is a loser in every sense of the word, unless you and Doug Cameron are of the same ilk?

Irish, Scots, English, Welsh, Scandinavian, German, French, Italian, Russian, Bulgarian and Spanish, to name the main ancestral mix and I admire Doug Cameron a lot; however I don't support Rudd, I just think that he will win.
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#37 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 09:59 AM

View Postsouthern man, on 14 August 2013 - 02:35 PM, said:

I know how Bookies frame a market, Bam, and I think the odds they currently have represent a true reflection on the likelihood of each party to form Government.
I don't think the "True Odds" (whatever they are) are any different.

On what basis do you form this assessment? Just a gut feeling, or a careful analysis on the basis of the total amount of money held by all the betting agencies on all the possible election outcomes? I doubt you've made any rigorous analysis, and I doubt you have any evidence otherwise you would have offered it by now.

In short, you are wrong. Here's why:

Quote

As soon as the election was announced there was a lot of money to the Coalition; after Gillard's demise the odds were still strong for a coalition victory

You're wilfully ignoring my point. The betting markets received a metric shitload of money on the Coalition when Gillard was the ALP leader and looked very likely to lead the ALP to an election defeat. After Gillard was replaced as ALP leader - an outcome that caught many by surprise - the odds remained skewed by the massive amounts of money that was placed when Gillard was leader.

Quote

and in the past week the ALP has blown out from about $3.85 to $5.50 - reflecting a flood of money for the Coalition.

It also represents a lot of money held from the Gillard era, the fact that people tend to place bets on outcomes that appeal to them, and that the wealthy have a lot more money to waste on frivolities than the poor. Another example of this appeal phenomenon is how the pre-season odds of a Collingwood or Richmond premiership are always a little lower than the actual odds; here, the betting is skewed by the number of bets than the amounts.

However, I won't discuss the odds any further. Referring to a likely outcome by discussing the betting odds is not a line of discussion that I want to pursue because I won't support the gambling industry in this way. I do not like discussing the form or outcome of any contest by referring to the gambling odds. I also support Xenophon's and Wilkie's efforts to rein in the gambling industry.

Opinion polling is a better line of discussion and I suggest you shift your line of discussion to the opinion polls. On the current opinion polling the Coalition appear more likely to win. However, even opinion polling can be an unreliable indicator of an election outcome. For example, Keating won in 1993 and Howard won in 1998 despite trailing in the opinion polls during the election campaign. (Howard won the 1998 election with only 48% of the 2PP vote.)

Quote

The other thing I am looking forward to is the disarray and back stabbing which will go on with Labour in opposition.

It's Labor, not Labour.

Quote

It will make the so called disunity under Brendan Nelson's Opposition Leadership look like child's play.

Speculation. More likely, a hypothetical ALP loss will see some resignations and by-elections. This occurs for members of both sides of politics. It's not a sign of disunity or disarray, just a sign of a politician being unwilling to be in Opposition after being in Government.

Quote

I wonder what the odds are of Rudd being Opposition Leader in 1 month? 3 months? 6 months? 12 months? following the election? The latter would be 1000 to 1 IMO.

More speculation, but let's assume for the sake of discussion that there's a change in government. Not all Prime Ministers that lose an election resign the leadership within 12 months. After Whitlam's heavy defeat in 1975 he remained the ALP leader until after the 1977 election. Menzies provides another interesting example. I accept that defeated Prime Ministers and Premiers are likely to resign the leadership (many also leave politics), but there are enough counterexamples to call your ill-judged "1000 to 1" remark into question.

Other possibilities also exist that you've not considered. The opinion polling suggests that the election will be close. If it is, here is a possible scenario.

Abbott hypothetically wins with a swing of between six and ten seats (in other words, not a large margin) and the Greens retain the balance of power in the Senate. The ALP and Greens - who are 100% likely to control the Senate between them for the next nine months (I leave it as an exercise for you to work out why) - will block key legislation of an Abbott government that they dislike. This includes any attempt to repeal the carbon price. Given Abbott's childish conduct in the last four years, some payback for Abbott's conduct in Opposition is strongly indicated (in other words, do not expect any Abbott mandate to be respected).

The Coalition have never been strong on respecting mandates in the Senate themselves, and have no right to expect the ALP to do any better (despite Abbott's distinct proclivity to hypocrisy). Furthermore, for any mandate even to exist the measures must have been put to the people at an election and debated by the politicians, the media and the electorate. Small-target election strategies (such as Abbott is running in this campaign) and clear mandates are mutually exclusive.

With key legislation blocked, Abbott calls a double-dissolution election and loses it.

Assuming the ALP do have a relatively narrow election loss in 2013 (which is likely based on the opinion polls), would Rudd want to give up this possibility of being re-elected as Prime Minister within the next 18 months?

Now run this scenario again, but Abbott wins the DD election. That is a more likely time for Rudd to move on in his political career.

So your hypothetical 1000-1 odds are really not framed in any reality. It's also possible that Rudd (who is a more popular leader than Abbott) would remain as leader in Opposition and rebuild a new ALP team. Even if it does occur that Rudd resigns within 12 months, it doesn't actually mean you're right.
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This post has been edited by Bam: 15 August 2013 - 10:03 AM
Reason for edit: reword ambiguity

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#38 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 10:12 AM

View PostRoderick, on 14 August 2013 - 05:15 PM, said:

I'm not a betting man but I think that Rudd will win.

Good on you for not being a betting man.

What makes you believe that Rudd will win the election?
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#39 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 16 August 2013 - 10:28 AM

Bam - You would attempt to argue that the color black was in fact white and that everyone else was wrong except you.
You are deluding yourself to state that "Rudd would remain as leader in Opposition and rebuild a new ALP team." Within his own party he is universally disliked (read hated).
Did you notice all the resignations once he became leader? and also complete backflips from people like Wong, Beattie and Conroy who now pretend to be behind him but can't keep their snout out of the public purse.
I reckon the Caucus Room will resemble an Indonesian Abbattoir after the election when all the pretence of unity behind Rudd is forgotten about and the reality of several terms (at least) in opposition starts to sink in; and the fact that the change of leaders didn't actually achieve anything except PERHAPS enable a few backbenchers to retain their seats. I reckon the odds of Rudd remaining as leader of the opposition 12 months after the election at 1000/1 are pretty safe.
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#40 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 16 August 2013 - 11:05 AM

Latest Odds from Sportsbet, Bam - Coalition $1.11; ALP $6.50.
Obviously wrong and completely skewed - what do you reckon the "TRUE ODDS" are???
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