The Daily Wire: ER 19 Aug 2013 2PP 50/50 Coalition/ALP (ALP up 1) - The Daily Wire

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ER 19 Aug 2013 2PP 50/50 Coalition/ALP (ALP up 1)

#1 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 06:01 PM

Primary:
Coalition 44 (up 1)
ALP 40 (up 1)
Greens 8 (no change)
Others 8 (down 2)
http://essentialvisi...port_130819.pdf

A remarkable result from ER showing a 1% 2PP shift to the ALP although both parties have primary up 1. ER is now the only pollster to show a trend to Labor. Generally ER is quite reliable, giving believable results during the Gillard era. Rounding is probably playing a part here and this result would have to be as close to 51/49 as it can get.

Nevertheless recent polling is quite confusing. A series of robopolls are giving Qld, NSW and Vic marginal seats strongly to the Coalition with big swings in some electorates. A rare Morgan phone poll last week had the Coalition 57/43 whilst Galaxy, although moving to the Coalition, is still 52/48.
Newspoll’s 54/46 came from a relatively large sample, but it has been quite volatile in recent times and therefore a 52/48 result, within MOE, is more probable.
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