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Newman, O'Farrell and Baillieu Three disappointing first-term Coalition Premiers

#1 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 30 October 2012 - 10:35 AM

Newman, O'Farrell and Baillieu are all underperforming rather badly. At the next election, based on current opinion polls, the three of them combined would lose at least 39 seats and only two would win a second term.

  • 22 seats in Queensland - The LNP gained 44 seats at the last election and would give up half of them.
  • 7 seats in NSW - So far O'Farrell's support has been been holding up but recently his approval rating has been declining sharply similar to how Baillieu's declined a year or so ago, and when approval declines the voting intention often changes too.
  • 10 seats in Victoria - The Coalition have a one-seat majority. The dissatisfaction that's been building for more than a year and the ALP's strong polling suggests that the Coalition are unlikely to win a second term.


For all three, expect further drops in support between now and the next election.

For Baillieu, his days as Premier are numbered. The next Victorian state election is scheduled for 29 November 2014. The Government have a 1-seat majority. The Opposition are polling very strongly (10-point lead in latest Newspoll) and his government has been plagued by numerous scandals and mismanagement. It is unlikely that Baillieu's Government can salvage this poor position so his days are quite literally numbered: from now (30/10/2012) to the scheduled election there's 760 days to go. 760 more days and Victorians will be rid of a poorly-performing Premier and Government.

In NSW, O'Farrell's been holding up better, but the signs of eroding support are evident. In the most recent Newspoll (PDF), the Premier's net approval rating has declined steadily from +29 (53 - 24) in October 2011 to zero (37 - 37) in August 2012. The two-party-preferred polling has held up better but has declined five points since the election. O'Farrell needs to lift his game otherwise he will drag his party's support down.

The litany of woe pouring forth from Queensland is the throbbing boil on the backside of the Coalition. Newman's plunge in support has been so precipitous that current polling methodologies (aggregates over time) cannot measure it accurately. For a discussion, Possum's Pollytics has an analysis that is worth reading. It's only a matter of time before Newman's support erodes noticeably - even the 62-38 support at the last election can be reduced to a losing position given enough mismanagement and time.

The lessons for NSW and Queensland are clear - a landslide election win is not a licence to run a bad government. And in Victoria, bad governments and slender majorities will make for a short stay on the Government benches at Spring Street.
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#2 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 30 October 2012 - 11:40 AM

Not so long ago the national Libs were crowing about the downfall of successive ALP governments in these states, now I notice that they are not saying much at all about the performance of these various premiers. At least two of them are well on the nose after a short time in office; O'Farrell for his part has been a complete non-event politically, and has systematically dogged every major decision in NSW since he came to power, and into the bargain left a great many people feeling ripped of or shortchanged.

Although things are far from clear, with the apparent softening of the federal Coalition polls numbers as well, there must be a few alarms ringing somewhere in the Liberal party offices around the country, surely?
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#3 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 30 October 2012 - 07:23 PM

View Postscotto, on 30 October 2012 - 11:40 AM, said:

Although things are far from clear, with the apparent softening of the federal Coalition polls numbers as well, there must be a few alarms ringing somewhere in the Liberal party offices around the country, surely?

Not until the next Federal election if the Coalition loses it.

My guess is that if the Coalition loses the next Federal election, they will lose it in these three states where the Three Stooges are running up scandal after scandal. These three states have 115 out of 150 seats in the Federal Parliament. The poor performance of the Coalition premiers may prove costly.

The next State elections in these states are:
NSW - 28 March 2015
Vic - 29 November 2014
Qld - no later than 20 June 2015

So there's a period of about six months where the Three Stooges all must face the music.
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#4 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 09:27 AM

View PostBam, on 30 October 2012 - 07:23 PM, said:

The next State elections in these states are:
NSW - 28 March 2015
Vic - 29 November 2014
Qld - no later than 20 June 2015

True, I guess they will be telling themselves not to worry until the election is looming in the next several months.
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#5 User is offline   On the level 

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 07:36 AM

View Postscotto, on 31 October 2012 - 09:27 AM, said:

True, I guess they will be telling themselves not to worry until the election is looming in the next several months.


At this stage i would have thought all the State parties would be keeping it quite for the federal election but with the mess they are making basically everywhere and this is including that joke Barnett in WA the feds must be getting frustrated.
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#6 User is offline   GoddyofAus 

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 09:23 PM

Anyone who reckons that Campbell Newman won't get wiped out at the next election needs to see this thread. Newman has lost half his gains in less then a year. There is 3 more years before the next election. If the trend keeps up, we could see a severe swing in the other direction.
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#7 User is offline   Bam 

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 09:20 AM

View PostGoddyofAus, on 08 January 2013 - 09:23 PM, said:

Anyone who reckons that Campbell Newman won't get wiped out at the next election needs to see this thread. Newman has lost half his gains in less then a year. There is 3 more years before the next election. If the trend keeps up, we could see a severe swing in the other direction.

The loss of half the seats gained would still leave Newman with a decent majority. IMO Newman's support will erode steadily over time. The typical way that governments give up the gains of a big election win is steadily over time.

Large gains are typically lost in the space of two election cycles. Examples: Federally in 1943 the ALP had a huge majority but lost government in 1949, Whitlam had a landslide in 1969 (lost narrowly but had a 7% swing), lost in 1975, Fraser won in 1975, almost lost in 1980. Victoria: Liberals won in a landslide in 1992, lost government two elections later. 2002 - ALP won in a landslide, lost government two elections later in 2010.

My prediction: his government will win the next election with a much-reduced majority and will enter their second term with a new leader perforce after Newman loses his seat. (With a uniform swing, if 22 seats are lost Newman will be one of the LNP politicians losing their seat.) Further in the future the following election will be much closer and may go either way.
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