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Predictions 2013

#1 User is offline   Senexx 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:10 PM

1. We will still be here, the world wont end on 21/12/12. Something might though

2. Regardless of whom is government, a surplus will not be achieved (and that's the aim of Labor govt), final budget outcomes reported in I think August, open to correction there.
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Support the Independents, Democracy always needs and requires a balance of power.

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#2 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:12 PM

Egypt to [sadly] descend into civil war. Iran and perhaps Lebanon [again] also.
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#3 User is offline   HDMC 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:57 PM

View Postscotto, on 04 December 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

Egypt to [sadly] descend into civil war. Iran and perhaps Lebanon [again] also.



Hockey to be elected Liberal leader.
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#4 User is offline   southern man 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:32 PM

Coalition led by Tony Abbott to have a convincing victory over the ALP whoever is leading them - probably Gillard.
The ALP will leave the election date as late as possible to enjoy being in charge as they know damn well it will be an awful long time before they form Government again.
The Greens to poll poorly and become largely irrelevant.
Windsor and Oakeshott to be defeated in landslides in their local electorates.
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#5 User is offline   Roderick 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:40 PM

My long standing prediction for 2013 is that Labor will win and will govern in its own right.

Abbott will be dumped and Hockey will be the new leader of the Opposition although the Libs might take a punt and give Bishop the chance as number one.
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Self-defence is not only a Right, it is an Obligation.
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#6 User is offline   longweekend58 

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:23 PM

View Postsouthern man, on 04 December 2012 - 05:32 PM, said:

Coalition led by Tony Abbott to have a convincing victory over the ALP whoever is leading them - probably Gillard.
The ALP will leave the election date as late as possible to enjoy being in charge as they know damn well it will be an awful long time before they form Government again.
The Greens to poll poorly and become largely irrelevant.
Windsor and Oakeshott to be defeated in landslides in their local electorates.


Thats pretty much my prediction although I think Gillard will go in march. Not quite sure why, but I think so.

I also tip a 55/45 landslide coalition win.
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#7 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:51 AM

View Postsouthern man, on 04 December 2012 - 05:32 PM, said:

Coalition led by Tony Abbott to have a convincing victory over the ALP whoever is leading them - probably Gillard.
The ALP will leave the election date as late as possible to enjoy being in charge as they know damn well it will be an awful long time before they form Government again.
The Greens to poll poorly and become largely irrelevant.
Windsor and Oakeshott to be defeated in landslides in their local electorates.

I don't think many commentators this that either "convincing" or "win" or even "Tony Abbott" is necessarily written in stone, but I guess we'll see.

I haven't seen any recent poll numbers covering the Independent electorates.
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#8 User is offline   GeorgeParsons 

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:11 AM

The price of money will fall but bankers will claim that money is too dear and they will continue their profit inflation.
Capitalism will gouge the state while pretending that it believes in the free flow of market forces.
Refugees will continue to be demonised.
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#9 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:45 PM

View PostHDMC, on 04 December 2012 - 04:57 PM, said:

Hockey to be elected Liberal leader.

Now you're just trying to cheer me up... I need a good laugh and seeing him on TV would do it.
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#10 User is offline   scotto 

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:46 PM

View PostGeorgeParsons, on 06 December 2012 - 10:11 AM, said:

The price of money will fall but bankers will claim that money is too dear and they will continue their profit inflation.
Capitalism will gouge the state while pretending that it believes in the free flow of market forces.
Refugees will continue to be demonised.

They're all too easy, we all know that will be right.

How about: Vlad Putin to dispense with elections?
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#11 User is offline   GoddyofAus 

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 10:10 PM

If Labors polling continues to even out with the Coalition, Gillard may pull the trigger sometime in Winter. I don't think she'll be able to avoid any blowback from a Budget report without a Surplus (if it comes to that), so I think her decision will largely depend on polling and whether or not she pulls the Surplus off.

As for the Liberals, they had best think about dumping Abbott on his arse and pressuring the QLD LNP to do the same to Newman. They're handicaps and nothing more.

Wet dream prediction that will most likely never happen is the QANDA prophecy coming true and Rudd and Turnbull forming a third party based on Social Progression, Fiscal Centre and Republican policy agendas.
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#12 User is offline   GoddyofAus 

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Posted 23 December 2012 - 06:32 PM

Now that the Surplus is history, this is how I see things going down:

Come June/July/August, if Labor are still in a clear losing position in the polls, another leadership spill will be called by Kevin Rudd. Rudd will win the spill and the polls will backflip. The Coalition will then do one of two things: they'll hedge their bets on Abbott or they'll dump him for someone else at the last minute, most likely Turnbull. If they do the former, Labor will belt the Coalition at the next election. If they do the latter, Labor will lose comfortably.

If Labor stick stubborn with Gillard, they had better get used to the idea of Opposition and we rational voters will have to come to terms with the idea of an Abbott government.
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#13 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 23 December 2012 - 10:56 PM

What about the war in Afghanistan and the stupid and banal excuses the Americans and/or Carr and his predecessors give for it's continuance? And this is that Afghanistan is a haven for training of terrorists???
That whole area which extends from there to Pakistan and beyond is desolate country just perfect for terrorist groups to pitch camps and train. How the hell can anybody guarantee that in an area which consists of desolate thousands of kilometers no terrorist is being conditioned and trained? It will be a logistical military nightmare where you'd have to send millions of troops to cover that complete area...an impossibility
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#14 User is offline   lenxyz 

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 03:08 PM

View PostGoddyofAus, on 23 December 2012 - 06:32 PM, said:

Now that the Surplus is history, this is how I see things going down:

Come June/July/August, if Labor are still in a clear losing position in the polls, another leadership spill will be called by Kevin Rudd. Rudd will win the spill and the polls will backflip. The Coalition will then do one of two things: they'll hedge their bets on Abbott or they'll dump him for someone else at the last minute, most likely Turnbull. If they do the former, Labor will belt the Coalition at the next election. If they do the latter, Labor will lose comfortably.

If Labor stick stubborn with Gillard, they had better get used to the idea of Opposition and we rational voters will have to come to terms with the idea of an Abbott government.


After giving overblown promises that the surplus will be achieved, this backflip, although announced at a quiet time, will mean there will be no return to the position of ALP being competitive any time soon. February/March wil see Coalition holding 55/45 and another leadership spill is possible. My prediction is it will be talked about but won't happen.

If it does happen, Labor will rush to the polls before the Rudd factor wears off. It will be too late. Labor will lose the election because it will not gain any seats to form government and there won't be Oakeshott or Windsor or Bandt to save them.

Abbott will remain Liberal Party leader. He has increased the Liberal primary vote by 50% since the Turnbull days and it is these people who will determine who is Liberal leader directly and indirectly. As the election draws near Abbott's approval will improve to be competitive.

If Gillard stays, Labor will be trounced and the Coalition will have a majority of a least 30 in the H of R.
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#15 User is offline   dumbcluck 

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 05:04 PM

That may be true about Abbott increasing the Coalition vote since Turnbull, but do not forget this is not because of Abbott's charisma...it is because the Gillard Government is on the nose. If Rudd is re-elected as Leader and this is not an impossibility (as contrary to many predictions on these forums), you watch Abbott's popularity decrease...by heaps
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#16 User is offline   Neil 

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 06:51 PM

Gillard wins the election
News Ltd refuses to accept the verdict
Alan Jones has a brain seizure
All the shock jocks have a day of mourning while still insisting the election result was rigged.
ABC agrees with them.
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#17 User is offline   Amber Dekstris 

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 08:51 PM

On the day of the federal election, neither Abbott nor Turnbull will be leader of the Liberal Party.
Rudd will not be leader of the Labor Party.
Print and broadcast journalism will continue its decline.
The Internet will not produce a successful business model to replace print/broadcast journalism.
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#18 User is offline   cods 

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 02:43 PM

Elvis will make his comeback..

gillard will announce her engagement.

abbott will be the new PM

Tony will STOP the boats.
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#19 User is offline   RightSaidFred 

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:12 PM

View Postsouthern man, on 04 December 2012 - 05:32 PM, said:

Coalition led by Tony Abbott to have a convincing victory over the ALP whoever is leading them - probably Gillard.
The ALP will leave the election date as late as possible to enjoy being in charge as they know damn well it will be an awful long time before they form Government again.
The Greens to poll poorly and become largely irrelevant.
Windsor and Oakeshott to be defeated in landslides in their local electorates.


I would add one point to that, if the ALP polling improves then Abbott might be replaced..... its a bit of a fence sitting prediction. I actually find it amusing that many ALP supporters hate Abbott ..... given all the players involved he seems their only hope of pulling off an ALP victory.
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#20 User is offline   RightSaidFred 

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:23 PM

View PostSenexx, on 04 December 2012 - 01:10 PM, said:

1. We will still be here, the world wont end on 21/12/12. Something might though

2. Regardless of whom is government, a surplus will not be achieved (and that's the aim of Labor govt), final budget outcomes reported in I think August, open to correction there.


On your second point a surplus is merely an out come of revenue and expenditure. A government can only make a surplus by constraining costs or increasing revenue in a relatively small band. Economists seem to think the deficit will be 10-15 billion which if if true suggest the ALP's revenue forecasts were way off and this figure looks definitely out of the band of government control ........ the real question is how did the ALP get to this point ?
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